ETF Outflows Triggered by BlackRock’s IBIT
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) recorded $317.81 million in redemptions, outpacing the combined outflows of Fidelity’s FBTC ($168.05 M) and Grayscale’s GBTC ($119.44 M) according to SoSoValue data.
Price Decline and Market Catalysts
Bitcoin’s price slipped to $82,687, a 6 % drop in 24 hours, after breaking its multi‑week trading range and hitting a low of $81,315 – the lowest level since April 2025.
Key negative catalysts included:
- Speculation around a new Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Warsh as a leading candidate.
- Equity market weakness following Microsoft’s disappointing Q4 2025 results.
- Rising concerns over a possible U.S. government shutdown and geopolitical tension in the South China Sea.
Fed Chair Speculation Impacts Basis Trade
Tim Sun of HashKey Group explained that the anticipated change in Fed leadership is reshaping the “basis trade” that has sustained Bitcoin spot ETF volumes. As interest‑rate expectations shift, capital sensitive to liquidity is rotating out of high‑volatility assets toward safe‑haven stores like gold.
Market Sentiment and Future Outlook
Prediction‑market participants on Myriad lowered Bitcoin’s probability of reaching $100,000 from 70 % to 49 % after Thursday’s collapse.
Aurelie Barthere of Nansen noted that Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. equities has turned positive again, reinforcing the sell‑off.
Analysts expect continued pressure on ETFs, options, and miner activity until clearer guidance on Fed policy and macro‑economic risks emerges.