Overview of the January 2026 Smartphone Market
According to Counterpoint Research, Apple was the sole major OEM to achieve meaningful year‑over‑year (YoY) growth in China for January 2026, posting an 8 percent increase. All other leading Chinese brands reported double‑digit declines, largely driven by a high base effect from the previous year.
Impact of the 2025 Subsidy Program
In January 2025 the Chinese government launched a smartphone subsidy: purchases of devices priced at 6,000 Yuan qualified for up to 500 Yuan (≈15 %) off. This, combined with the early Lunar New Year, inflated sales figures for that month, creating an artificial peak that became a heavy baseline for 2026.
- Subsidy applied to all OEMs except Apple (joined in June 2025).
- Resulted in a surge of January 2025 sales across the board.
- Created a “base‑effect” drag on YoY comparisons for 2026.
Apple’s Performance and Timing
Apple entered the subsidy scheme only in June 2025, so its January 2026 numbers were not as distorted by the earlier boost. Consequently, Apple’s 8 percent YoY growth stands out against the backdrop of double‑digit declines for rivals such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and Oppo.
Future Outlook: Phase‑Out and Consumer Sentiment
China is gradually withdrawing the subsidy program while consumer sentiment weakens. OEMs are responding with targeted discounts to sustain demand. Apple is expected to face its own base‑effect pressure in the summer of 2026 as the subsidy impact normalises.
Luxury Appeal: The ‘Cosmic Orange’ Effect
A recent factor boosting Apple’s fortunes is the iPhone 17 Pro Max’s “Cosmic Orange” colour, which mirrors Hermès’ signature hue. The luxury association has resonated with Chinese consumers, positioning the device as a status symbol and further supporting sales.