Impact of DRAM Price Surge on Shipments
The ongoing DRAM shortage is pushing memory prices higher, which Counterpoint Research says will partially explain the decline in global smartphone chipset shipments for 2026. Higher component costs are squeezing volume but creating margin upside for SoC makers.
- DRAM price rise contributes to lower shipment numbers.
- Higher memory costs are a key driver of double‑digit SoC revenue growth.
Market Share Landscape
MediaTek remains the dominant player with a projected global market share of 34 % (down slightly from 34.4 %). Apple and Qualcomm will see share reductions but benefit from the premium‑device segment.
- MediaTek: ~34 % share, still the largest fabless vendor.
- Apple & Qualcomm: decline in volume but higher average selling prices.
Premiumization Driving Revenue Growth
One in three smartphones shipped in 2026 is expected to be a premium device. This “premiumization” trend fuels revenue growth despite lower unit shipments.
- Consumers gravitate toward iPhone and Snapdragon‑powered flagships.
- Higher‑priced handsets boost average revenue per unit (ARPU).
2nm Chipset Race: MediaTek, Apple, Qualcomm, and Samsung
All major players are preparing 2nm silicon, focusing on architectural refinements and larger caches.
- Samsung unveiled the world’s first 2nm GAA chipset, the Exynos 2600.
- Apple secured >50 % of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity for its A20 and A20 Pro.
- MediaTek taped out its Dimensity 9600, using ARM cores to keep costs competitive.
- Qualcomm is expected to launch a 2nm Snapdragon later in the year, leveraging its in‑house CPU designs.
Future Outlook and Recommendations
Counterpoint’s senior analyst Soumen Mandal forecasts continued double‑digit revenue growth for the SoC market in 2026, driven by premiumization, rising memory prices, and AI‑enabled features. Smartphone OEMs should consider adopting MediaTek’s Dimensity 9600 to offset higher DRAM and NAND costs, while Apple and Qualcomm can leverage their premium positioning to maintain profitability.